Offshore wind power has been in the news recently, more because the Trump administration is taking a new and novel approach to stopping its development than because of any advances with particular projects. Still, quietly, some developers are making progress toward completing projects that the administration appears unable to stop. We spoke with Capstone Energy analysts Paul Greenough and Claudia Harnett about what’s happening in the industry and what the opportunities for investors look like.
Given President Trump’s dislike of wind power, what is the timeline for getting legal and regulatory clarity regarding offshore wind development in the US?
Since President Trump returned to office at the start of 2025, his administration has relentlessly targeted offshore wind projects. While regulatory uncertainty for project developers will loom over the sector until a new administration takes office, the impact of Trump’s approach to offshore wind will depend on what stage of development a given project is at.
We expect projects that are under construction and have all of their federal permits to continue toward completion, as they have won critical legal battles in the face of sustained legal and regulatory opposition. The administration’s sweeping stop-work order in December, which cited national security risks, paused construction on five projects across the East Coast, and, of course, developers sprang to successfully challenge it. We believe developers are in a good position because they have on their side solid legal precedents and a high bar to suspend already-approved leases, while the administration lacks many other options to challenge projects.
It’s a different story for projects that haven’t yet completed the federal permitting process. We believe the administration will continue to sit on permits unless some kind of settlements are negotiated. Although a federal judge overturned Trump’s January 20th memo directing agencies to halt wind project permit approvals, the ruling does not compel the administration to issue permits. The Department of the Interior can still slow-walk the permitting process through procedural delays without issuing an explicit rejection. We don’t expect this dynamic to change, and believe legal clarity for these projects sitting in legal limbo will come with the next administration, which could restore a viable federal permitting process for offshore wind.
Offshore wind has a permitting timeline that takes from seven to 10 years. That means developers who begin the process at the start of a new administration in 2029 won’t see the completed until the mid-to-late 2030s, assuming the new administration offers continued political support.
Given President Trump’s dislike of wind power, what is the timeline for getting legal and regulatory clarity regarding offshore wind development in the US?
Right now, three underappreciated variables are shaping offshore wind project trajectories: first is the mixture of project status and energy affordability; second comes the importance of court rulings; and third is the support from Republicans.
The five projects that were issued preliminary injunctions are racing to complete construction with the finish line in sight. The administration’s December stop-work order had a contradictory caveat: Off the coast of Massachusetts, Vineyard Wind turbines already delivering electricity to the Massachusetts grid were exempt from the pause. The administration was unwilling to disrupt energy supply or impact energy reliability, even amid its most aggressive action yet against offshore wind. As projects get close to delivering power, we see risk to those operating assets declining sharply.
The courts have emerged as the ultimate arbiter of a project’s destiny. While the administration has deployed nearly every available tool to halt offshore wind development, courts have been its biggest roadblock. The Revolution Wind projects, which sits off the coasts of Rhode Island and Connecticut, and Empire Wind, meant to serve New York, had each already been targeted by stop-work orders before the December pause. In both cases, courts sided with developers. Courts have allowed developers to continue to work in the face of overlapping efforts by the President, the Justice Department, and the Department of the Interior to interfere.
The administration is also facing growing resistance to its campaign against offshore wind from its own party. Following the December stop-work order, nine congressional Republicans sent a letter to cabinet secretaries pressing the administration on using the national security rationale to block projects. They noted that growing concerns about energy affordability make interrupting a promised supply of utility-scale renewable power likely to add to that pressure.
What are the investment opportunities?
It’s a turbulent landscape, but offshore wind service companies have some insulation from the tumult. Site assessments, operations, and maintenance for ongoing projects will be required regardless of the federal policy environment as projects can still make progress at the state level.
Additionally, we see positive trends for allowance prices within the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative. The trajectory of aggressive allowance cap reductions taking effect in 2027, delays in offshore wind, and limited emissions reduction opportunities will provide investors with tailwinds.
Federal curtailment of offshore wind development, paired with growing affordability concerns, is also driving a wave of proposed amendments to the Renewable Portfolio Standards across New England. The proposed renewable target pushbacks and eligible energy expansions would put downward pressure on REC prices. Rhode Island Governor Dan McKee (D) pointed to the Trump administration’s disruption of the offshore wind pipeline as a driver of the state’s need to reassess their renewables targets.
What are the risks to investors?
We think about risk across three intervals, given how dynamic regulatory and legal action has materialized over the past year.
In the next 30 days, the most immediate risk is the administration’s closing window for appealing the five preliminary injunctions granted to projects under construction. Several of the deadlines have passed, insulating Revolution Wind, Empire Wind, and Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind.
A secondary near-term risk is litigation. Lawsuits challenging project permits, filed by local and environmental groups, create procedural openings for the administration to get permits returned to the Bureau of Energy Management for further review. The administration used this tactic to delay Southcoast Wind (off the coast of Massachusetts), a fully-permitted project that had not begun construction. This is a risk for projects with federal permits that have not yet begun construction: a category where courts have shown less resistance to the administration’s delay tactics.
| Project | Date Preliminary Injunction was Granted | 60-Day Deadline for Appeal |
| Revolution Wind | 1/12/2026 | 3/13/2026 |
| Empire Wind | 1/15/2026 | 3/16/2026 |
| Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind | 1/16/2026 | 3/17/2026 |
| Vineyard Wind | 1/27/2026 | 3/28/2026 |
| Sunrise Wind (off the coast of New York) | 2/2/2026 | 4/3/2026 |
Through the end of June, we will be tracking recent reports about the administration’s new strategy of offering reimbursements for leased offshore acreage to developers in exchange for their promising to build natural gas infrastructure.
After that, there is a July 4th deadline for the Investment Tax Credit and Production Tax Credit safe harbors. That’s the date by which solar and wind projects must begin construction to be able to claim federal tax credits. We will also be tracking any other ways the administration comes up with to slow-walk projects that are coming online.
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