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  • The Trouble With China By: David Barrosse, Capstone CEO September 23, 2021 — A recent book, The Long Game: China’s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order, makes the compelling case that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been following a systematic plan to exert its influence over the region and the world since the end of the Cold War. […]Learn More
  • Consumer Lender Landscape Returns to Normal as COVID-19 Stimulus Wanes By Thomas Dee, CFA September 16, 2021 — Nineteen months ago, when the then-emerging coronavirus shut down the economy, analysts had dire predictions for the American consumer. The Wall Street Journal warned in mid-March 2020 that “consumers face a massive credit crunch,” amidst fears that record numbers could lose their cars and homes. The Mortgage […]Learn More
  • Manchin’s Law: The Path Forward for the Infrastructure Bill By: Max Reale September 7, 2021 — Everything was lined up perfectly for Democratic leadership in Congress to deliver President Biden two major legislative accomplishments – the Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal (BID) and the FY22 Reconciliation Bill (Recon 2) – by Monday, October 4th, until Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) put pen to paper in a Wall […]Learn More
  • California Governor Recall Election Unlikely to Derail Cap and Trade, Low Carbon Fuel Standard By: Eva Raczkowski September 2, 2021 — Capstone believes if California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) is removed from office after the September 14th recall vote, the impact on cap and trade and the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) would likely be limited, as there will be few opportunities for his successor to derail his administration’s […]Learn More
  • The Smartest Insurers in the Room: How Medicare Advantage Insurers Continue to Evade By: Grace Totman August 31, 2021 — In 1997, President Clinton and Republicans championed a new form of Medicare: managed Medicare offered by private insurance companies, an interesting artifact of how far to the left Democrats have moved on health policy. Now known as Medicare Advantage (MA), the program offers beneficiaries enhanced benefits and a […]Learn More
  • From ‘False Solutions’ to Climate Policy Planks: How Congressional Dems Have Changed Position on Climate Solutions By: Josh Price August 24, 2021 — On August 22, 2019, presidential-hopeful Bernie Sanders released his $16 trillion plan to address climate change, setting a goal of a 100% renewable electric grid by 2030.  Echoing a fact sheet accompanying the congressional Green New Deal resolution from 2019, Sanders’ plan stated  “we will not rely on any false solutions like nuclear, geoengineering, carbon capture and sequestration, or […]Learn More
  • What the Infrastructure Bill Means for Netflix, Google, and Other Internet Service Providers By Matt Wiederrecht August 18, 2021 — Capstone believes the Senate’s passage of the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill last week brought us a big step closer towards its becoming law, which we continue to believe has 80% odds of happening. Should it pass, the bill will be meaningfully positive for investors in both major internet […]Learn More
  • Showing Our Work: How Capstone Pursues Accuracy in Predictions By David Barrosse, CEO August 17, 2021 — Fundamentally, we do two things at Capstone. We make policy predictions, and then we model how those predictions will impact companies or sectors. However, the prediction business has a very poor reputation, especially in the world of politics and policy. The reality is individuals in our industry […]Learn More
  • Delta Variant to Cause Long, Broad Rise in COVID Cases; Renewing Pressure for Mask Mandates, Additional Precautions By Hunter Hammond August 10, 2021 — Capstone believes a broader, longer-lived wave of COVID-19 cases is likely to develop in the coming months, likely adding mounting pressure on governments to institute mask mandates and businesses to take precautionary steps to reduce transmission. In the US, COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are climbing, increasing 544%, […]Learn More
  • The Coming Cement Goldrush By Andrew Gier, CFA August 3, 2021 — When it comes to climate policy, states, and California in particular, are often laboratories for policies that become more widespread and widely adopted. These policies are likely to build on lessons learned while developing existing programs and include models that have already proved successful in other areas. […]Learn More