2025 Policy Forecasts: Tech, Media & Telecom
Welcome to Capstone’s annual forecast of unappreciated policy and regulatory themes companies, investors, and, industries should expect to play out over the course of the year in technology, media and telecommunications.
Charting AI’s Course: Identifying the Accelerators and Roadblocks Ahead
The AI market will accelerate in 2025 in response to the US government’s efforts to build its AI infrastructure and roll back regulation. Amid this momentum, several dynamics will distinguish the winners from the losers. Notably, open-weight model developers like Meta and Mistral.ai will face underappreciated headwinds. In addition, US companies that develop AI models on behalf of EU customers face risks as enforcement of the EU AI Act begins later in the year.
Challenging the Giants: Big Tech’s Growing Antitrust Battles in Court
Capstone believes the executive and judicial branches will step up scrutiny of Big Tech platforms in 2025, including Alphabet Inc.’s Google, ByteDance Ltd.’s TikTok, and Live Nation Entertainment Inc. However, Congress will play a less significant role than it did during the Biden administration as key conservatives leave Congress to join the Trump White House. We also expect the refusal-to-deal (RTD) doctrine to play a pivotal role in litigation.
Crypto Surge: Trump’s SEC to Boost Industry and Bank Involvement
We believe the crypto industry will benefit from regulatory clarity and increased investment established by a pro-crypto Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). We anticipate a decrease in enforcement actions by the SEC will allow for an expansion of crypto ETFs and other products. These changes will create tailwinds for the crypto industry and spur more competition for existing crypto platforms as large banks look to get in the game.
Firewall Frenzy: Cyber Vendors Benefit Amid Rising Global Tensions
We believe the Trump administration will take a more aggressive cyber-security posture and gut the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA)—moves that will escalate global cybersecurity tension. We also expect Congress to push for cyber regulation harmonization and modernization, creating tailwinds for cybersecurity vendors and consultants and headwinds for telecom, pipelines, and utility critical infrastructure.
Selective Borders: Immigration Agenda Will Redraw Labor Markets and Talent Pools
Capstone believes Trump will pursue his illegal immigration agenda immediately after taking office, leading to underappreciated labor availability woes and wage pressure challenges for the construction and services industries. However, reforms to the specialty occupation (H1-B) visa program will notably widen the foreign talent pool for Big Tech companies.
Trump’s Tech Wall: Intensifying “Tough on China” Policy Approach to Pose Global Risks
Capstone believes that a second Trump administration will intensify the US’s “tough on China” technology policy approach and expand the scope of controlled technologies. These tensions pose underappreciated risks for domestic and foreign semiconductor manufacturers, Japanese automakers, e-commerce platforms, and large-scale M&A deals.
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