2023 Policy Forecasts

Company with Human Capital in Lebanon

Predicting the policy landscape for a business with a significant staffing presence in Beirut, Lebanon, including a focus on the trajectory of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict in 2024 and the likely reconstruction outlook.​

Quantifying the impact of multiple different conflict scenarios and their impact on company operations, with a view toward getting the Investment Committee informed of the range of possible outcomes and the irrelative risks to a contemplated investment. ​

Creating a strategy for our private equity client to prepare to acquire company with significant conflict exposure, including strategies for reducing business interruption and ensuring the welfare of the company’s employees. ​

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Company with Human Capital in Belarus and Ukraine

Predicting the policy landscape impacting a US business with operations and staff in Ukraine and Belarus, including specific sanctions exposure and other business interruption risk. ​

Quantifying the impact of current and future banking sanctions, export controls, and reputational risk on business operations and the overall attractiveness of the Company. ​  

Creating a strategy to identify specific areas of risk and mitigating factors, including post-close recommendations for operating the business regarding personnel, technology infrastructure, and compliance.​

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A Financial Institution in Kazakhstan

Predicting the policy and sanctions landscape impacting US investments into a publicly traded bank in Kazakhstan.​

Quantifying the impact of allegations that this bank was in violation of US sanctions,including building a well-informed view regarding the veracity of those allegations and the likelihood of potential action by the US Treasury Department against this bank as a result.

Creating a strategy for our investor client on how to interpret US sanctions accurately and predict future US Treasury actions in order to determine potential risk exposure for its investment and what risk mitigation measures it should take. 

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Quantifying the impact of allegations that this bank was in violation of US sanctions,including building a well-informed view regarding the veracity of those allegations and the likelihood of potential action by the US Treasury Department against this bank as a result.

Creating a strategy for our investor client on how to interpret US sanctions accurately and predict future US Treasury actions in order to determine potential risk exposure for its investment and what risk mitigation measures it should take. 

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An Energy Storage Manufacturer​

Predicting the policy for energy storage and climate resiliency policies in DoD, from policy to procurement, with a specific focus on large-scale batteries.​.​

Quantifying the impact of  key DoD policies and procurement trends affecting both installation energy and operational energy to identify business opportunities for this energy storage manufacturer. ​  

Creating a strategy to capture DoD business both directly and indirectly, via relationship-building with private sector partners working with DoD in its Utility Privatization (UP) program. Additionally, reprioritized the client to focus on installation energy over operational energy given the relative size of the market in each sub-sector of DoD.​

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Disaster Risk Modeling Company​

Predicting the policy and regulatory environment impacting a provider of natural disaster risk modeling for governments, utility and insurance markets.​

Quantifying the impact of policy and regulatory drivers that are pushing industries to invest in natural disaster risk mitigation and preparedness.   

Creating a strategy for our private equity client to attract additional capital by building conviction around the company’sservices relative to the regulatory requirements and market factors that are shaping demand for the company’s products and services.   

Quantifying the impact of policy and regulatory drivers that are pushing industries to invest in natural disaster risk mitigation and preparedness.   

Creating a strategy for our private equity client to attract additional capital by building conviction around the company’sservices relative to the regulatory requirements and market factors that are shaping demand for the company’s products and services.   

An American Defense Prime

Predicting the policy and regulatory environment around the commercialization of dual-use defense technology and assess federal and state-level demand for wildfire-fighting intelligence services.​

Quantifying the impact of future spending on technology for fighting wildfires to inform the development of a new service offering paired with a new business model for the client.   

Creating a strategy for the company to design its product with an informed view ofcustomer needs and procurement requirements, as well as build a complementary strategic engagement strategy.

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Jones Act-Compliant Shipping Company

Predicting the policy landscape for specific Department of Defense contracts for a Jones Act-compliant shipping company.​

Quantifying the impact of changes to how USTRANSCOM contracts with logistics companies for military relocations to determine risks to specific revenue streams for the company presented by a major overhaul of USTRANSCOM’s execution of military household goods relocation services. ​

Creating a strategy for underwriting the contract risks to the business based on key known and unknowns in USTRANSCOM’s processes and our forward-looking views on how the risks are likely to materialize in  years. ​  

Drone Operations Over People and Vehicles​ 

Predicting the policy and regulatory environment of impacting the utilization of drones for operations over people and moving vehicles, which necessitates interpretation of vague FAA regulations.​

Quantifying the impact of complying with FAA regulations on the operations of a business with extensive drone operations in areas that may be in regulatory grey areas. 

Creating a strategy for our portfolio company client to build a robust set of policies and procedures to demonstrate compliance with FAA guidelines in a manner that would enable them to scale the business while minimizing regulatory risk. ​  

Navigation and Flight Planning Software Provider

Predicting the policy and regulatory outlook inthe US and EU for navigation, flight planning, and operational planning tools utilized by the commercial, military, and general aviation industry. ​

Quantifying the impact of the FAA’s regulatory agenda stemming from the 2024 FAA Reauthorization and modernization efforts for the National Airspace System to accommodate next generation aircraft such as eVTOLs and drones. ​

Creating a strategy for our private equity client to invest in the business, from both a regulatory risk mitigation perspective as well as anticipating how the future of flight will create new opportunities for the business. ​  

A Global Critical Minerals Producer​

Predicting the policy landscape shaping the US market for rare earth magnets used in advance military weapons systems amid growing concern over rare earth supply chains.​

Quantifying the impact of the Biden administration’s long-term policies to strengthen supply chain security, including those on for neodymium magnets, to help our client gain confidence with friendshoring-based supply and demand.​

Creating a strategy to take advantage of these policy drivers in support of the second-largest private equity transaction in Japan’s history.​  

SaaS Provider to the Department of Defense​

Predicting the policy environment for SaaS providers to the Department of Defense and across a range of other federal agencies as a result of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and broader procurement changes. ​​

Quantifying the impact of DOGE-aligned contracting disruptions to the overall software market for the DoD and other agencies and identify the degree of exposure to this business in particular. ​

Creating a strategy identifying major risks and opportunities for this business to navigate DOGE-era contracting volatility and to inform our private equity client’s investment strategy. ​  

A MRE Vendor to theDefense Logistics Agency​

Predicting the policy and budgetary outlook for a major vendor of meals-ready-to-eat (MREs) and other food products to the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA).​

Quantifying the impact of current and forecasted demand for the company’s products to the DLA and, to a lesser extent, FEMA, on the outlook for the business as well as any potential changes in the competitive landscape for key vendors.

Creating a strategy for our private equity client to understand the role that the company plays in DLA supply chains, DLA priorities such as industrial base concerns that drive contract awards and pricing dynamics, and other matters to inform their investment strategy. ​  

A Cybersecurity Certification Vendor

Predicting the policy and budgetary outlook for evolution of DoD efforts to better identify talent gaps and upskill the defense cybersecurity workforce.​

Quantifying the impact of new policy and senior stakeholder initiatives on the total addressable market for commercially-available cybersecurity certification programs within the DoD.

Creating a strategy that navigates fragmented decision-making authorities and customer buying habits across the defense ecosystem to promote the penetration of the client’s product and mitigate the risk associated with new regulations.

A Military Satellite Manufacturer​

Predicting the policy environment driving the adoption of commercial earth observation satellites across several key US sectors (e.g. agriculture, critical infrastructure, insurance). The goal was to identify commercial applications for satellite technology originally designed for defense applications.​

Quantifying the impact of the commercial, policy, and regulatory drivers creating specific market needs for enhanced earth observation capabilities.

Creating a strategy to further develop three specific business concepts, including one that received IRAD resources and is being advanced rapidly within the organization.

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A US Defense Contractor

Predicting the policy and competitive environment regarding defense modernization and procurement priorities in a country allied with the US, particularly regarding demand for combat vehicles.​

Quantifying the impact of international competitors entering an established export market with strong support from their domestic governments.​  

Creating a strategy assessing competitive risk, outlining influence levers within the US government that relate to foreign military sales (FMS), and identifying champions in US government to advocate for American defense exports in the face of foreign defense industry competition.  

A MILCON-Focused Engineering Firm

Predicting the policy landscape for an engineering firm that derives a significant proportion of its revenue from working with the Department of Defense, and particularly on MILCON projects.

Quantifying the impact of the DoD budgetary outlook, including for MILCON and O&M spending on infrastructure, and other key issues to assess the project pipeline health of the business. ​  

Creating a strategy for our private equity client to assess the overall health of the DoD end market for this business, both from the contracting and project pipeline perspective and a broader look at the US national security strategy and the role of infrastructure investment within it.

Aircrew Helmet Manufacturer

Predicting the competitive award process for the US Air Force and Navy’s Next-Generation Fixed Wing Helmet (NGFWH), which is the largest disruption to the military helmet market in decades.

Quantifying the impact for NGFWH ofthe USAF adding a second helmet manufacturer into its supplier base and calculate projected demand for a new entrant across multiple aircraft and services based on industrial base concerns.​  

Creating a strategy for our private equity client to underwrite the likelihood that a competitive new entrant would be awarded a major contract by the USAF as a part of its investment strategy into this space.

A Shipyard Infrastructure Company

Predicting the policy and budgetary outlook for US Naval shipbuilding programs, as the Navy is the ultimate end-customer for ships constructed at US shipyards utilizing the Company’s products and services.

Quantifying the impact of major US Navy shipbuilding budgetary plus-ups on shipyard infrastructure investment cycles for the Company’s business outlook.

Creating a strategy for our private equity client to underwrite the policy and budgetary drivers that will shape their investment into a shipyard infrastructure company that is highly exposed to the growth of US naval shipbuilding. 

A Cyber Training Platform

Predicting the policy landscape for an enduring cybersecurity training requirements across the military services asthe DoD centralizes cybersecurity authorities. 

Quantifying the impact of the DoD’s realignment of cyber authorities and organizations, which could reshape funding across the entire cyber enterprise.​

Creating a strategy for our private equity client to navigate the DoD’s fragmented cyber acquisition community and provided key insights to help an early-stage cyber company cross the “valley of death” onto funded programs of record. 

Border Screening Systems Producer

Predicting the competitive award process for non-intrusive scanning equipment across the US Department of Homeland Security and DoD.​

Quantifying the market conditions for new scanner and sensing technology in the border screening space and assessed the durability of contracts across the federal, state and local customer set.​

Creating a strategy overview of regulatoryand policy considerations of the securityscanner market, analyzing TSA procurementprocesses and federal screening equipmentrequirements, to assess market accessbarriers and growth opportunities for ourclient’s potential investment.

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C4ISR “Non-Platform”Systems Market

Predicting the policy and budgetary outlook for non-platform C4ISR systems by analyzing service-specific requirements,DoD-wide technology trends, and combatant command funding streams for distributed intelligence processing and multi-domain command and control capabilities.

Quantifying the impact of major initiatives across the Combatant Commands, which we identified as an underappreciated source of funding for non-platform ISR systems.

Creating a strategy for our client that mapped out attractive customers ahead ofany formal requirements and allowed them to differentiate their intelligence capabilities within the crowded SIGINT market.

Oncology-Focused Specialty Pharmacy

Overview: Capstone evaluated the policy environment surrounding the pharmacy supply chain, including impact analysis of pharmacy reform and Medicare Part D landscape. This included a unit economic evaluation of 15 drugs of the clients’ selection, history of PDUFA legislation, and impact analysis of the Inflation Reduction Act, PBM reform, and reform to Medicare’s six protected classes on the company.

Process: Capstone spoke with 40+ key stakeholders, including:

• Executives at major payors and PBMs;
• Top advocates at prominent industry associations; and
• Key governmental stakeholders.

Capstone analyzed the target’s proprietary claims data to determine the acquisition and reimbursement costs, relevant to benchmarks like WAC, AWP, and NADAC.

Capstone analyzed the target’s reimbursement and market share compared to other key competitors using the 100% Part D Events file, allowing fine-tuned and accurate market comparative analysis.

Deliverable: Capstone provided an in-depth, 150-slide final deck, analyzing both the political outlook that would impact their economics and building drug-level trends in AWP, WAC, NADAC, reimbursement, and drug-level market share compared to pharmacy competitors.

Home Infusion Pharmacy

Overview: Capstone evaluated the impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act, including implications of the carve-out of IVIG products from IRA negotiation, Medicare Part D redesign, and inflation rebates in Medicare Part D, Part B, and Medicaid. This also included an overview of drug-level trends (2018-2024) in AWP, WAC, ASP, and Medicare Part D reimbursement trends by payor using 100% Part D PDE/claims file.

Process: Capstone spoke with 60 key stakeholders, including:

• Executives and decision-makers at major pharmaceutical manufacturers;
• Top leaders at influential payors/PBMs; and
• Seasoned experts at major providers.

Capstone analyzed the target’s reimbursement and market share compared to other key competitors using the 100% Part D Prescription Drug Events (PDE) file, allowing fine-tuned and accurate market comparative analysis.

Deliverable: Capstone provided an in-depth 100+ slide final deck, including analysis and impact of the unique relationship between IVIG and SCIG manufacturers and PBMs.

European Generics Manufacturer

Overview: Capstone evaluated the national and international policy environment impacting generic drug markets in seven key European markets. This included an in-depth country-by-country analysis of drug pricing and reimbursement schemes, efforts to expand generic uptake, and outlook for regulations to drive or limit utilization of generic drugs.

Process: Capstone spoke with more than 40 key stakeholders, including:

• Executives and other decision-makers at major manufacturers; Advocates and lobbyists for industry peers; and
• Legal experts on pharmaceutical pricing and drug approval processes.

Deliverable: Capstone provided an in-depth 170+ slide final deck, including opportunities for both risk mitigation and service expansion driven by policy headwinds or tailwinds.

Clinical Trial Site Management Organization

Overview: Capstone evaluated the national policy environment impacting pharmaceutical research and development policy and the clinical trial pipeline. This included an in-depth analysis of the NIH grant lifecycle, history of PDUFA legislation, and outlook for NIH funding disruptions to the pre-clinical timeline.

Process: Capstone spoke with 35 key stakeholders, including:

• Experts from leading academic and commercial medical research institutions;
• Executives and decision-makers at major pharmaceutical manufacturers;
• Policymakers from key offices and agencies.

Deliverable: Capstone provided an in-depth 75+ slide final deck, including analysis and commentary of recent, relevant headlines and a scenario analysis of the possible impacts of the Trump administration’s proposed changes.

Opioid Treatment Expansion Opportunity

Overview: Capstone analyzed the outlook for passage of the Modernizing Opioid Treatment Access Act (MOTAA) and assessed the outlook for states to align themselves with new federal policy on the regulation of opioid treatment programs. Specifically, we analyzed the outlook for changes in operations by other operators in the OTP ecosystems, including pharmacies, OTP take-home prescription practices, and pharmaceutical manufacturers participating with the new channel.

Process: Capstone spoke with more than 3 dozen key stakeholders, including:

• State opioid treatment authorities, providers, and payors, including chief medical officers and members of state medical boards;
• State lawmakers, federal affairs officials, and state Medicaid agencies; and
• Various associations and industry groups, such as the American Society of Addiction Medicine (ASAM).
• Large, national retail pharmacies

Deliverable: Capstone provided an in-depth 47-slide final deck outlining the impact of the potential passage and implications of MOTAA nationally and in 10 states of the client’s choosing.

Hospital RCM Platform

Overview: Capstone analyzed potential policy options as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and outlined their respective impacts on total Medicaid enrollment and hospitals. As part of our work, we projected changes in both Medicaid enrollment and applications and surveyed hospitals for needs associated with beneficiary enrollment into Medicaid.

Process: Capstone spoke with roughly 2 dozen key stakeholders, including:

• Relevant policymakers in both the House and Senate;
• Revenue cycle directors in major hospital systems; and
• State Medicaid directors.

Deliverable: Capstone provided an in-depth ~50 slide final deck, including an analysis of the most likely final OBBBA package and associated impacts to Medicaid enrollment over the next decade.

Home Health & Hospice EHR Solution

Overview: Capstone provided an overview of payment structures across systems, outlining how the core value propositions of the Company aligned with provider incentives. Additionally, Capstone provided an outlook for regulatory changes that could affect the value of the company’s services, including both payment structure reform and reimbursement changes that could impact provider ability to pay.

Process: Capstone spoke with ~20 stakeholders, including providers, payors, competitors, and lead lobbyists behind the home health and hospice industries.

Capstone assessed interoperability-associated disintermediation risk, including analysis of trends toward digital quality reporting, digital HEDIS, bulk FHIR APIs, and national data exchange through TEFCA.

Deliverable: Capstone provided an in-depth 50-slide deck, including an analysis of ROI for the company’s primary offerings and 5-year reimbursement outlooks for respective industries.

Applied Behavior Analysis Provider

Overview: Capstone evaluated the policy and reimbursement environment impacting the applied behavior analysis space in key states. This included an analysis of healthcare regulatory dynamics such as minimum wage requirements and scrutiny of PE ownership, as well as commercial and Medicaid reimbursement rate trends.

Process: Capstone spoke with more than 3 dozen key stakeholders, including:

• ABA providers and payors, including medical directors, BCBAs, RBTs, and behavior case managers;
• State lawmakers, government affairs officials, and state Medicaid agencies; and
• Various autism advocacy organizations.

Deliverable: Capstone provided an in-depth 65-slide final deck outlining the impact of healthcare policy on an ABA provider, as well as Medicaid and commercial reimbursement rate outlook over the next 3-5 years.

Personal Care Services Provider

Overview: Capstone provided an overview and outlook of policies impacting personal care services in Arizona, including historical rate volume trends for the target’s top services and a scenario analysis detailing how policy changes would impact those trends. This included assessing perspectives on the value and utilization growth of personal care services and levers available to both the state and payors to potentially limit/encourage growth.

Process: Capstone spoke with roughly 2 dozen key stakeholders, including:

• Experts from managed care organizations;
• Key providers in the home care space; and
• Advocates in other states.

Deliverable: Capstone provided an in-depth, 30+ slide final deck, including an analysis of risks to the current structure and offerings of personal care benefits within Arizona Medicaid.

Global Fertility Clinic

Overview: Capstone evaluated the policy environment impacting the fertility benefits space in the US and Europe. This included an analysis of utilization trends, efforts to expand access to IVF, outlook for coverage expansion, and thesis development on fertility services in a post-Dobbs world.

Process: Capstone spoke with more than 3 dozen key stakeholders, including:

• Large fertility providers, reproductive tissue banks, and academic centers;
• State lawmakers, government affairs officials, and lobbyists for industry peers; and
• Various reproductive rights associations.

Deliverable: Capstone provided an in-depth, 75-slide final deck, along with regular update calls on the developing policy environment and relevant court cases impacting the global fertility space.

Multi-State Ambulatory Surgical Center Platform

Overview: Capstone analyzed historical and go-forward commercial and Medicare reimbursement for major ASC services, procedures, and top infused products. Additionally, Capstone analyzed state certificate of need policies, Medicaid supplemental payment programs, and site of care trends on a code-by-code basis.

Process: Capstone spoke with ~20 key stakeholders, including:

• National and regional payors;
• Competitors; and
• Policymakers and industry lobbying groups.

Our work outlined how major policy changes in the ASC payment system, including shifts in the covered procedure list and annual rate updates, and implementation of the IRA would affect reimbursement for the company’s top services and products over the next 5-7 years.

Capstone surveyed top payors to identify priorities in shifts of services from the hospital to the ASC setting, including incentives and preferences given to contracted providers.

Overview: Capstone provided an in-depth, 50+ slide final deck with an additional 100-slide appendix and Excel supplement highlighting variance in commercial reimbursement on a payor and provider-specific basis for all key codes and drugs.

Value-Based Care Enablement Platform

Overview: Capstone evaluated the policy landscape, market opportunity, and competitive landscape for a value-based care enablement tool focused on quality and risk assessment across payor verticals, including Medicare Advantage, Medicaid, and commercial insurers. Capstone’s analysis focused on federal regulation and state regulatory dynamics in 6 key states, as well as key market dynamics.

Process: Capstone performed primary and secondary market research, including:

• Speaking with 20 key regulators/stakeholders; and
• Surveying 60 end-user decision makers of VBC enablement tools.

Capstone estimated the market opportunity and forecasted the TAM, SAM, and VM for the company’s core customers using enrollment and VBC data sets.

Capstone defined the competitive landscape for the company’s core services and geographic expansion opportunity.

Capstone gathered market perspectives from current operators and customers.

Capstone assessed interoperability-associated disintermediation risk, including analysis of trends toward digital quality reporting, digital HEDIS, bulk FHIR APIs, and national data exchange through TEFCA.

Deliverable: Capstone provided an in-depth, 170-slide deck for our client’s deal team on key policy and commercial issues, as well as a 15-slide investment committee deck distilling key takeaways for the client.

Medicare Advantage Risk Bearing Provider

Overview: Capstone evaluated the federal regulatory landscape surrounding a value-based care provider that takes full delegated risk from both Medicare Advantage plans and participates in Medicare FFS programs, such as MSSP and ACO REACH. Capstone’s analysis focused on deriving the per-member-per-month (PMPM) increase or decrease to the Company’s revenue as a result of proposed federal laws and regulations, as well as an analysis of the health of the Medicare Advantage and Medicare FFS end markets based on recent history.

Process: Capstone spoke with key regulators/stakeholders, including:

• Federal and state lawmakers;
• Key decision makers for value-based contracting at Medicare Advantage plans; and
• Key decision makers at value-based care providers.

Capstone estimated the per-member-per-month impact of proposed federal laws and regulations to quantify the impact of passage on value-based care providers.

Capstone created a fan of outcomes for potential changes in contracting dynamics among national, regional, and “blues” payors with VBC partners to understand the potential risks or opportunities for provider partners over the next 5 years.

Deliverable: Capstone provided an in-depth, 80-slide deck for our client’s deal team on key policy and contracting dynamic questions, as well as a 10-slide deck distilling key takeaways for the client to present to their investment committee.