Corporate Analysis
By Ian Tang, Gabe Armstrong-Scott, and JB Ferguson
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May 27, 2025 By Matt Wiederrecht, Head of Capstone's Special Situations Team Capstone believes companies and investors are underappreciating opportunities associated with state and local governments (SLGs) spending—particularly in construction, govtech, and outsourced...
May 21, 2025 By Andrew Gier, CFA, Head of Capstone's Trade Practice Capstone believes material obstacles will prevent the Trump administration from imposing tariffs on foreign films, shielding producers and streamers such as Netflix Inc. (NFLX), Walt Disney Co. (DIS),...
May 20, 2025 By Andrew Gier, CFA, Head of Capstone's Trade Practice Capstone believes that tariffs on China and Section 232 tariffs on heavy industrial products and vehicles will lead to significant long-term import slowdowns across US ports due to the magnitude of...
We added value by…
Predicting the policy landscape in US healthcare to anticipate major changes impacting its markets
Quantifying the impact of these likely changes on the company’s revenue drivers, such as federal health programs and employer insurance markets
Creating a strategy for C-suite leadership to inform new market entry, revenue optimization, and effectively execute stakeholder building, communications, and advocacy
We added value by…
Predicting the policy around reverse mortgages
Quantifying the impact of shifting FHA policy changes that historically held back reverse mortgage volumes
Creating a strategy to avoid enforcement risk and benefit from a stabilizing policy environment around reverse mortgages
We added value by…
Predicting the policy and regulatory outlook for hydrogen, carbon capture and vehicle electrification in the Western United States
Quantifying the impact of nascent policy opportunities to create new revenue streams for the target
Creating a strategy to identify the most favorable policy-driven pathways for decarbonizing the target’s natural gas assets
We added value by…
Predicting the policy landscape around sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel in North America and Europe
Quantifying the impact of policy incentives for biofuel production in the United States and demand-side incentives from Canada and Europe
Creating a strategy to highlight the company’s expansion opportunities in the most favorable biofuel markets
We added value by…
Predicting the policy outlook for the US shipping and logistics sector in the context of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)
Quantifying the impact of decarbonization incentives and requirements of specific IRA provisions to build a clean fuels and electrification strategy
Creating a strategy to engage the White House on its decarbonization plans and provide industry perspectives on IRA implementation
We added value by…
Predicting the policy around federal autonomous vehicle rules and their likely adoption timeline
Quantifying the impact of the deployment of automated driver systems and changes in worker classification laws on driver supply
Creating a strategy for the company to navigate the regulatory landscape and position products with motor carriers
We added value by…
Predicting the policy for semiconductor incentives in the US and abroad
Quantifying the impact of CHIPS Act funding on the manufacturer’s R&D initiatives and other operations
Creating a strategy to qualify for subsidies as a non-traditional contractor and upstream supplier
We added value by…
Predicting the policy landscape by assessing sanction and payment risks
Quantifying the impact of sanctions and export controls that would prevent the company from operating in specific regions
Creating a strategy for company leadership to evaluate third-party resources, develop a licensing plan, and network with US Embassies
We added value by…
Predicting the policy surrounding continued federal support of essential services and disaster recovery efforts in Puerto Rico
Quantifying the impact that federal funding and the restructuring of Puerto Rico’s debt obligations would have on Gross Domestic Product and read throughs to the local economy
Creating a strategy for investors to take advantage of this improvement in the economic outlook by investing in a consumer lending company based in Puerto Rico
We added value by…
Predicting the policy surrounding the three-tier model for alcohol distribution
Quantifying the impact of state-level changes to alcohol distribution policies and the risk posed to alcohol distributors from retailers engaging in self distribution and consumers purchasing from out-of-state vendors
Creating a strategy for the company to grow its revenue base in an increasingly competitive alcohol distribution market
We added value by…
Predicting the policy and regulatory environment surrounding airport security with respect to inbound logistics to airport terminals
Quantifying the impact of future changes in airport security and investments in airport expansions funded through the bipartisan infrastructure law
Creating a strategy for the company to best position itself for future contracting opportunities in the security screening and logistics space
We added value by…
Predicting the policy surrounding specialized retirement custody solutions, such as automatic IRAs
Quantifying the impact of evolving federal policy on missing participants
Creating a strategy for investors to take advantage of efforts to expand access to retirement savings
We added value by…
Predicting the policy surrounding offshore wind interconnection and transmission infrastructure in the northeast and western United States
Quantifying the impact of federal grant opportunities and IRA tax incentives, in addition to state-level offshore wind solicitations
Creating a strategy to underscore the company’s funding opportunities and expansion potential in favorable states
We added value by…
Predicting the policy landscape around K-12 funding, assessment policy, and credentialing
Quantifying the impact of shifting economic scenarios on school budgets
Creating a strategy to approach state and local education agencies based on their needs
We added value by…
Predicting the policy landscape around US mining reform efforts in response to global critical mineral supply chain shortages
Quantifying the impact of geopolitical instability and supply chain shortages on the company
Creating a strategy to domesticate the company’s critical mineral supply chain, minimizing geopolitical risk
We added value by…
Predicting the policy landscape around the Biden administration’s infrastructure bill before its passage to anticipate areas of opportunity
Quantifying the impact of new funding on the company’s existing and potential customer base, as well as how their customers will likely invest the funds
Creating a strategy to utilize billions of dollars in pre-RFP projects that helped the client prioritize regions and projects for their broker-dealer teams and get ahead of the competition
We added value by…
Predicting the policy landscape around the introduction of voluntary environmental protection credits
Quantifying the impact of the voluntary credits as a new revenue stream for decarbonization projects
Creating a strategy for the Chair’s office to become a leader in this space and incentivize the private sector to decarbonize without direct government support
We added value by…
Predicting the policy landscape around sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)
Quantifying the impact of policy support on the company’s investment plans over the next five years
Creating a strategy for building a SAF ecosystem among the industry and its suppliers to help the company achieve its sustainability goals
We added value by…
Predicting the policy and regulatory outlook for Carbon Capture and Storage and CO2 pipelines in the Midwestern United States
Quantifying the impact of Midwestern regulatory developments and stakeholder perspectives on the company’s project
Creating a strategy to mitigate risk while maximizing the likelihood that the company’s project succeeds
We helped our client…
Predict the policy and regulatory environment enabling US governments and utilities to adopt technology that supports wildfire prediction and mitigation
Quantify the impact of future spending on technology investment for wildfire fighting to inform the strategy development of a new service offering
Create a strategy for the company to design its products with an informed view of customer needs and procurement requirements, as well as build a complementary strategic engagement strategy to soften the ground for its public sector-focused products and services
We added value by…
Predicting the policy landscape around hydrogen in European countries the company was considering entering
Quantifying the impact of policy support on its market entry strategy in the next five years
Creating a strategy for our client to expand in the countries with the most favorable future markets
We added value by…
Predicting the policy landscape for commission payments in the EU and Swedish insurance brokerage sector
Quantifying the impact of a ban on fund kickbacks on the company’s future revenue
Creating a strategy to offset the revenue loss by moving to a fee-based model
We added value by…
Predicting the policy landscape outlook for tax incentives for electric vehicle purchases through salary sacrifice schemes
Quantifying the impact of higher Benefit-in-Kind tax rates on employee take-up rates of company car schemes
Creating a strategy around the broader UK transport decarbonization agenda and opportunities for car leasing
We added value by…
Predicting the policy and rate changes for Medicare Advantage
Quantifying the impact on 10-year per-member-per-month revenue projections
Creating a strategy to optimize payments under various regulatory scenarios
We added value by…
Predicting the policy and regulation for the 340B drug pricing program
Quantifying the impact of likely regulation and legislation on script revenue in on-site vs. contract pharmacies
Creating a strategy to gain an investment advantage in a volatile policy space
We added value by…
Predicting the policy changes to Medicare Advantage and risk adjustment
Quantifying the impact of changes to the risk scoring system
Creating a strategy for investing into the risk adjustment ecosystem