February 24, 2025
By Daniel Silverberg, Co-Head of Capstone’s National Security Team, and Alexander Slater, Managing Director in Capstone’s Corporate Practice
President Trump’s skeptical approach to foreign assistance suggests his administration is likely to require private capital as a condition for leveraging official US funding for key initiatives like Ukraine’s reconstruction, the India-Middle East Economic Corridor (IMEC), and data center construction across Africa and Asia. This posture represents a continuation of an agenda from his first term when the State Department launched the Blue Dot Network and builds on the Biden Administration’s Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGI), which both aimed to counter China’s Belt-and-Road Initiative, a massive effort to expand its global footprint through its infrastructure-focused projects. Investors and companies would be wise to follow PGI closely to identify potential investment opportunities.
Investors and companies would be wise to follow PGI closely to identify potential investment opportunities.
The Blue Dot Network and PGI are attractive for the Trump Administration because they are platforms to advance US strategic and economic interests with minimal public money. Under Biden, the PGI served as the main vehicle to take control of critical minerals mines in the Congo and leverage G7 economic support for projects in emerging countries where China had been aggressively building projects often funded by predatory loans. Trump officials most recently signaled openness to shift money from USAID to the Development Finance Corporation (DFC), the federal agency responsible for helping de-risk private sector projects abroad and advance public-private partnerships overseas. There have also been bipartisan calls to double DFC’s lending capacity to $120 billion. This additional capital could create new opportunities for US infrastructure investors and companies that support these projects.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has already indicated this is the Trump Administration’s preferred approach to Ukraine’s reconstruction and rebuilding of its energy grid, telecommunications, and pipeline systems, as well as increasing access to its critical mineral reserves. The President has also highlighted infrastructure investments in joint statements with the visiting prime ministers of Japan and India, and amidst massive personnel cuts at the State Department, the Trump team left the PGI office unscathed, signaling support.
Beyond Ukraine, immediate PGI opportunities might include the revitalization of IMEC, which the G20 announced in September 2023 in New Delhi but was delayed after the October 7, 2023, terror attack in Israel. The IMEC is intended to create a trade route and clean hydrogen pipeline from India to the UAE, Israel, and eventually Europe. If successful, it would provide investment opportunities in rail, telecommunications, pipelines, and shipping. India is already one of the largest recipients of DFC funding, and the IMEC would further leverage this derisking model.
As part of his anti-China push, President Trump could also leverage tariff threats to push for investment in PGI-type projects, in addition to investment in the US itself. This could be a primary way to generate foreign support for data center construction in Africa and Asia. Secretary Gina Raimondo began to lay a path forward for this approach when she overrode elements of the Biden administration that resisted the export of US Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology to the UAE and pushed licenses to an Emirati company, G42, for the construction of data centers in these regions. Raimondo’s theory was that the US must grant the UAE and countries with strong export control monitoring access to US AI technology to deny Chinese dominance. This includes everything from high-tech routers and network switches to railways ferrying critical minerals, such as copper, from African mines. We expect the Trump administration to continue Biden’s push on AI and data center infrastructure exports, and there could be opportunities for collaboration with Japanese and Korean companies. Global data center construction will also create opportunities for power generation providers – traditional and renewable- given the extraordinary power load growth demands generated by data centers.
A tough stand against China is a uniting factor among conflicting factions in the White House, and PGI will enable the Trump administration to accomplish a dual goal of combating Chinese economic aggression while minimizing reliance on federal dollars.
Numerous factions on any given day compete in the Trump administration on foreign policy. Tensions between traditional GOP internationalists and MAGA activists are well documented and, in fact, are playing out before our eyes amidst Trump’s olive branch to Russia. However, a tough stand against China is a uniting factor among conflicting factions in the White House, and PGI will enable the Trump administration to accomplish a dual goal of combating Chinese economic aggression while minimizing reliance on federal dollars. We will continue closely monitoring Trump’s PGI policy and identify infrastructure opportunities for our clients.
Daniel Silverberg, Co-Head of Capstone’s National Security Team
Alexander Slater, Managing Director in Capstone’s Corporate Practice
Read more from Capstone’s National Security Team:
Three Factors That Will Drive Trump’s China Policy
US-China Tensions: Growing Restrictions and Expanding Global Risks
How the Dept. of Government Efficiency Will Use Its Platform
