2026 Policy Forecasts: Tech, Media, and Telecommunications
Welcome to Capstone’s annual forecast of unappreciated policy and regulatory themes companies, investors, and, industries should expect to play out over the course of the year in the tech, media, and telecommunications sector.
The Great Chip Chase: Implications of the Trump Administration’s Strategy to Win the AI Chip Race with China
Capstone expects the Trump administration to maintain a pro–artificial intelligence, hands-off regulatory posture in 2026, with states and courts stepping in to fill the gap through targeted restrictions and case-by-case rulings. We also anticipate a transactional approach to semiconductor export controls, allowing chipmakers to continue selling advanced hardware to China, alongside continued federal support for data center development despite growing local opposition.
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Too Big to Hide: Why Big Tech Platforms Will Face Continued Scrutiny
Capstone expects regulators to take an increasingly multifaceted approach to curbing harmful activity on platforms operated by Alphabet Inc.’s Google, Meta Platforms Inc., Apple Inc., and Roblox Corp. Age verification requirements, children’s safety litigation, and evolving content liability standards create near-term headwinds, though First Amendment considerations may limit their reach. We also expect antitrust actions—particularly targeting app store practices—to continue.
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The Banks Strike Back: Traditional Finance Muscles into Crypto
Capstone believes regulatory frameworks established by the GENIUS Act, the CLARITY Act, and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) actions will usher traditional banks and securities trading platforms into digital-asset markets, creating competition for incumbent crypto platforms by lowering fees. At the same time, non-US countries will combat dollarization by promoting domestic stablecoins over their US dollar counterparts.
Ripple Effects of Immigration: Why Labor Shortages and Wage Reform Loom
Capstone believes the Trump administration’s policy of accelerating deportations will pose an underappreciated threat to US homebuilders, one-quarter of whose labor supply is immigrants. We expect the courts to block the administration’s proposed $100,000 price tag for H-1B visas, and that prevailing wage reform will spark higher labor costs, another underappreciated headwind, this time for foreign IT outsourcers.
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