2026 Policy Forecasts: Financial Services
Welcome to Capstone’s annual forecast of unappreciated policy and regulatory themes companies, investors, and, industries should expect to play out over the course of the year in the financial services sector.
The Deregulatory Pendulum Swing: Life after a Neutered Consumer Finance Protection Bureau
Capstone believes the Trump administration is intent on dismantling the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), even as the agency—constrained by limited budgets and staffing—moves forward with a broad deregulatory rulemaking agenda favorable to industry. As federal enforcement and supervision recede, we expect well-resourced, Democratic-led states to step in, creating a fragmented and uneven regulatory landscape.
Continued Pressure: Why the Insurance Industry Will Continue to Face Scrutiny
Capstone believes the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) will continue its multi-year effort to tighten its scrutiny of the investment strategies of insurers, and of their use of artificial intelligence (AI) and big data. We expect state policymakers to continue weighing targeted reforms to promote insurance affordability as heightened catastrophe risks shape the nation’s largest property and casualty (P&C) markets.
Housing Unlocked: GSE Reform, Pro-Housing Legislation, and Mortgage Innovation Shape 2026
Capstone expects housing policy to be a major priority for federal and state leaders in 2026, including the Trump administration. Lawmakers are likely to begin reshaping the roles of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and pursue a range of efforts to increase housing supply and make homes more affordable. We also anticipate continued scrutiny of algorithmic pricing tools used in the rental and real estate markets, along with a wave of changes to federal housing programs.
The Education Industry’s Budget Conundrum: How Federal and State Budget Drivers Will Drive Education Firms
Capstone expects a mixed outlook for K–12 vendors, universities, and higher education services in 2026. While federal education funding is likely to remain stable despite disruptions at the US Department of Education, state-level budget pressures threaten K–12 vendor revenues. Policies targeting international student enrollment create headwinds for universities and related service providers, while changes to graduate loan limits open opportunities for private student loan lenders.
Banking on Ease: How the Regulatory Burden on Banks Will Lessen in 2026
Capstone believes that prudential regulators will continue to lift the regulatory burden for banks of all sizes in 2026, even as they consider new stablecoin regulations that pose competitive threats to smaller banks. We expect the release of a “capital neutral” Basel III Endgame proposal and do not expect Congress to pass legislation to adjust deposit insurance thresholds.
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