2025 Policy Forecasts: Financial Services
Welcome to Capstone’s annual forecast of unappreciated policy and regulatory themes companies, investors, and, industries should expect to play out over the course of the year in the financial services sector.
The CFPB Pendulum Swings Back: Regulatory Retreat Under Trump
Capstone expects the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) to scale back its aggressive rulemaking agenda under the Trump administration in 2025. While the CFPB will continue to enforce the law, the Trump administration is likely to pause pending rules and rescind or initiate rulemakings to roll back ambitious Biden-era rules. Constitutional challenges and efforts to impose direct congressional appropriations face dim prospects.
Beyond the Blueprint: How Federal and State Regulators Will Reshape the Housing Industry
Capstone expects elevated housing and real estate policy action in 2025, with the Trump administration initiating government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) reform and stepping up pressure on the rental and hotel industry’s use of rent-setting algorithms. We expect recent changes to the commission structure to hurt real estate brokerages. We also expect state-rent protection measures to surge as a response to Republican control on the federal level.
Insurer Checkup: PE Scrutiny Grows, But Annuities Gain from Deregulation
Capstone believes insurers will continue to face more scrutiny over investment strategies, reinsurance practices, and the use of data intelligence tools. Exposure to catastrophe risks and extreme weather will likely prod policymakers to balance strengthening property and casualty markets with affordability goals. Firms active in annuities and title segments stand to benefit from the incoming Trump administration’s deregulatory approach.
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