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Our Biggest Trade Policy Calls: What We Got Right and Wrong and What We Learned 

Our Biggest Trade Policy Calls: What We Got Right and Wrong and What We Learned 

by Meghan Pallardy | Oct 6, 2025 | Featured Article, Insights, Trade (Insights)

Taking the stage after being inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States on January 20th, President Trump reiterated a thought he had shared often during his campaign, saying, “I always say ‘tariffs’ is the most beautiful word to me in the...
US-India Relations Hit a Roadblock (Again)

US-India Relations Hit a Roadblock (Again)

by Meghan Pallardy | Aug 5, 2025 | Featured Article, Insights, National Security (Insights), Trade (Insights)

American investors and companies that are looking at India as their next big opportunity or an alternative supply chain node to China, as well as Indian companies seeking to enter or expand their footprint in the world’s biggest market, should pay close attention to...
Trump’s Movie Tariff Effort Faces Key Obstacles

Trump’s Movie Tariff Effort Faces Key Obstacles

by Meghan Pallardy | May 21, 2025 | Insights, Trade (Insights)

Capstone believes material obstacles will prevent the Trump administration from imposing tariffs on foreign films, shielding producers and streamers such as Netflix Inc. (NFLX), Walt Disney Co. (DIS), and Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN). Tariffs are an impractical tool for...
Section 232 Could Sink US Port Revenues

Section 232 Could Sink US Port Revenues

by Meghan Pallardy | May 20, 2025 | Featured Article, Insights, Trade (Insights)

Capstone believes that tariffs on China and Section 232 tariffs on heavy industrial products and vehicles will lead to significant long-term import slowdowns across US ports due to the magnitude of the tariffs and their ability to withstand legal challenges, making it...
President Trump’s Tariffs Have Shocked the World. What Now?

President Trump’s Tariffs Have Shocked the World. What Now?

by Meghan Pallardy | Apr 7, 2025 | Featured Article, Insights, Trade (Insights)

I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that most people reading this didn’t have a great week. Capstone has been on the record since shortly after the election, saying that we thought President Trump was going to take a swing at the US’s major non-China...
Expect More Policy-Driven Volatility from Reciprocal Tariffs

Expect More Policy-Driven Volatility from Reciprocal Tariffs

by Meghan Pallardy | Apr 4, 2025 | Featured Article, Insights, Special Situations (Insights), Trade (Insights)

While there is room for negotiation to reduce the reciprocal tariffs imposed by President Trump on April 2nd, policy-driven volatility will keep the market sell-off from quickly reversing course. We expect new, product-specific investigations targeting semiconductors...
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The investment adviser or investment adviser representative in question may only transact business in this state if first licensed, excluded, or exempted from the state investment adviser or investment adviser representative licensing requirements; and individualized responses to persons in this state by the investment adviser or investment adviser representative that involve either effecting or attempting to effect transactions in securities, or rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, will not be made without compliance with the state investment adviser or investment adviser representative licensing requirements, or an applicable exemption or exclusion.

A Recruiting Platform for Motor Carriers

magnifying glass

We added value by…

Predicting the policy around federal autonomous vehicle rules and their likely adoption timeline

Quantifying the impact of the deployment of automated driver systems and changes in worker classification laws on driver supply

Creating a strategy for the company to navigate the regulatory landscape and position products with motor carriers

Connect

A Semiconductor Equipment Manufacturer

semiconductor chip

We added value by…

Predicting the policy for semiconductor incentives in the US and abroad

Quantifying the impact of CHIPS Act funding on the manufacturer’s R&D initiatives and other operations

Creating a strategy to qualify for subsidies as a non-traditional contractor and upstream supplier

Connect

A Global Media Analytics Firm

connected people

We added value by…

Predicting the policy landscape by assessing sanction and payment risks

Quantifying the impact of sanctions and export controls that would prevent the company from operating in specific regions

Creating a strategy for company leadership to evaluate third-party resources, develop a licensing plan, and network with US Embassies

Connect

Post Hurricane Economic Outlook in Puerto Rico

house in storm

We added value by…

Predicting the policy surrounding continued federal support of essential services and disaster recovery efforts in Puerto Rico

Quantifying the impact that federal funding and the restructuring of Puerto Rico’s debt obligations would have on Gross Domestic Product and read throughs to the local economy

Creating a strategy for investors to take advantage of this improvement in the economic outlook by investing in a consumer lending company based in Puerto Rico

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A Payment Processor in Alcohol Distribution

beer bottles

We added value by…

Predicting the policy surrounding the three-tier model for alcohol distribution

Quantifying the impact of state-level changes to alcohol distribution policies and the risk posed to alcohol distributors from retailers engaging in self distribution and consumers purchasing from out-of-state vendors

Creating a strategy for the company to grow its revenue base in an increasingly competitive alcohol distribution market

Connect

An Airport Services P3 Operator

airport terminal

We added value by…

Predicting the policy and regulatory environment surrounding airport security with respect to inbound logistics to airport terminals

Quantifying the impact of future changes in airport security and investments in airport expansions funded through the bipartisan infrastructure law

Creating a strategy for the company to best position itself for future contracting opportunities in the security screening and logistics space

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A Supplemental Benefits Vendor

heartbeat

We added value by…

Predicting the policy landscape in US healthcare to anticipate major changes impacting its markets

Quantifying the impact of these likely changes on the company’s revenue drivers, such as federal health programs and employer insurance markets

Creating a strategy for C-suite leadership to inform new market entry, revenue optimization, and effectively execute stakeholder building, communications, and advocacy

Connect

A Retirement Custody Solutions Provider

We added value by…

Predicting the policy surrounding specialized retirement custody solutions, such as automatic IRAs

Quantifying the impact of evolving federal policy on missing participants

Creating a strategy for investors to take advantage of efforts to expand access to retirement savings

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A Leading EdTech Company

online learning

We added value by…

Predicting the policy landscape around K-12 funding, assessment policy, and credentialing

Quantifying the impact of shifting economic scenarios on school budgets

Creating a strategy to approach state and local education agencies based on their needs

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A Leading Reverse Mortgage Lender

house

We added value by…

Predicting the policy around reverse mortgages

Quantifying the impact of shifting FHA policy changes that historically held back reverse mortgage volumes

Creating a strategy to avoid enforcement risk and benefit from a stabilizing policy environment around reverse mortgages

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An Integrated Shipping and Logistics Company

container ship

We added value by…

Predicting the policy outlook for the US shipping and logistics sector in the context of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)

Quantifying the impact of decarbonization incentives and requirements of specific IRA provisions to build a clean fuels and electrification strategy

Creating a strategy to engage the White House on its decarbonization plans and provide industry perspectives on IRA implementation

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An American Private Equity Firm

electric car

We added value by…

Predicting the policy and regulatory outlook for hydrogen, carbon capture and vehicle electrification in the Western United States

Quantifying the impact of nascent policy opportunities to create new revenue streams for the target

Creating a strategy to identify the most favorable policy-driven pathways for decarbonizing the target’s natural gas assets

Connect

An American Private Equity Firm

airplane

We added value by…

Predicting the policy landscape around sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel in North America and Europe

Quantifying the impact of policy incentives for biofuel production in the United States and demand-side incentives from Canada and Europe

Creating a strategy to highlight the company’s expansion opportunities in the most favorable biofuel markets

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A Global Private Equity Firm

offshore wind turbines

We added value by…

Predicting the policy surrounding offshore wind interconnection and transmission infrastructure in the northeast and western United States

Quantifying the impact of federal grant opportunities and IRA tax incentives, in addition to state-level offshore wind solicitations

Creating a strategy to underscore the company’s funding opportunities and expansion potential in favorable states

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An At-Risk Primary Care Provider

stethoscope

We added value by…

Predicting the policy and rate changes for Medicare Advantage

Quantifying the impact on 10-year per-member-per-month revenue projections

Creating a strategy to optimize payments under various regulatory scenarios

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A 340B Company

pills

We added value by…

Predicting the policy and regulation for the 340B drug pricing program

Quantifying the impact of likely regulation and legislation on script revenue in on-site vs. contract pharmacies

Creating a strategy to gain an investment advantage in a volatile policy space

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A Risk Adjustment Vendor

medical records

We added value by…

Predicting the policy changes to Medicare Advantage and risk adjustment

Quantifying the impact of changes to the risk scoring system

Creating a strategy for investing into the risk adjustment ecosystem

Connect

A UK Motor Vehicle Insurance Provider

electric car

We added value by…

Predicting the policy landscape outlook for tax incentives for electric vehicle purchases through salary sacrifice schemes

Quantifying the impact of higher Benefit-in-Kind tax rates on employee take-up rates of company car schemes

Creating a strategy around the broader UK transport decarbonization agenda and opportunities for car leasing

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A Global Private Equity Firm

revenue

We added value by…

Predicting the policy landscape for commission payments in the EU and Swedish insurance brokerage sector

Quantifying the impact of a ban on fund kickbacks on the company’s future revenue

Creating a strategy to offset the revenue loss by moving to a fee-based model

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A Hydrogen-Focused Energy Company

hydrogen molecule

We added value by…

Predicting the policy landscape around hydrogen in European countries the company was considering entering

Quantifying the impact of policy support on its market entry strategy in the next five years

Creating a strategy for our client to expand in the countries with the most favorable future markets

Connect

An American Defense Company

wildfire

We helped our client…

Predict the policy and regulatory environment enabling US governments and utilities to adopt technology that supports wildfire prediction and mitigation

Quantify the impact of future spending on technology investment for wildfire fighting to inform the strategy development of a new service offering

Create a strategy for the company to design its products with an informed view of customer needs and procurement requirements, as well as build a complementary strategic engagement strategy to soften the ground for its public sector-focused products and services

Connect

A Global Energy Corporation

pipeline

We added value by…

Predicting the policy and regulatory outlook for Carbon Capture and Storage and CO2 pipelines in the Midwestern United States

Quantifying the impact of Midwestern regulatory developments and stakeholder perspectives on the company’s project

Creating a strategy to mitigate risk while maximizing the likelihood that the company’s project succeeds

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A US-Based Global Airline

airplane

We added value by…

Predicting the policy landscape around sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)

Quantifying the impact of policy support on the company’s investment plans over the next five years

Creating a strategy for building a SAF ecosystem among the industry and its suppliers to help the company achieve its sustainability goals

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A Major Korean Conglomerate

skyscrapers

We added value by…

Predicting the policy landscape around the introduction of voluntary environmental protection credits

Quantifying the impact of the voluntary credits as a new revenue stream for decarbonization projects

Creating a strategy for the Chair’s office to become a leader in this space and incentivize the private sector to decarbonize without direct government support

Connect

A Global Transit Infrastructure Company

elevator

We added value by…

Predicting the policy landscape around the Biden administration’s infrastructure bill before its passage to anticipate areas of opportunity

Quantifying the impact of new funding on the company’s existing and potential customer base, as well as how their customers will likely invest the funds

Creating a strategy to utilize billions of dollars in pre-RFP projects that helped the client prioritize regions and projects for their broker-dealer teams and get ahead of the competition

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A Global Mining Company

sledgehammer

We added value by…

Predicting the policy landscape around US mining reform efforts in response to global critical mineral supply chain shortages

Quantifying the impact of geopolitical instability and supply chain shortages on the company

Creating a strategy to domesticate the company’s critical mineral supply chain, minimizing geopolitical risk

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