2025 Policy Forecasts: Special Situations
Welcome to Capstone’s annual forecast of unappreciated policy and regulatory themes companies, investors, and, industries should expect to play out over the course of the year in the special situations space.
Spectrum of Change: FCC to Back Satellite Growth With America-First Policies
Capstone believes a Republican-led Federal Communications Commission (FCC) will take an “America first” stance in the satellite race against China by boosting new, large US-based satellite constellations such as SpaceX’s Starlink and Amazon’s (AMZN) Project Kuiper. The FCC is set to implement a waiver by Q1 2025 and simplify the licensing procedure, change spectrum-sharing rules, and expand broadband capital subsidy programs.
Rewiring the Network: FCC to Drive Pro-business Policy Changes
Capstone believes a Republican-led Federal Communications Commission (FCC) will aggressively pursue business-friendly regulatory reforms and adopt an accommodative stance towards mergers and acquisitions. This is expected to result in major policy changes for the telecommunications industry, creating underappreciated opportunities for broadband providers, wireless companies, and Elon Musk’s Starlink.
Mergers and Maneuvers: Trump’s Return to Realign M&A and Antitrust Focus
Capstone assigns a 90% probability that US regulators will approve the transaction SES/Intelsat deal by December 19, 2025, under the Trump administration, up from the 80% probability that we assigned under a potential Democratic administration.
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